The United States and a Rising China Strategic and Military Implications (1999),9780833027511

The United States and a Rising China Strategic and Military Implications (1999)

by ; ; ; ;
ISBN13: 9780833027511
ISBN10: 0833027514
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 1999-08-17
Publisher(s): RAND Corporation
List Price: $30.00

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Summary

China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager.

Table of Contents

Preface iii
Figure and Tables ix
Summary xi
Acknowledgments xix
Glossary xxi
Introduction
1(2)
Determinants of Chinese National Security Behavior
3(34)
Determinants of Policy During the ``Modernization'' Period
4(12)
Pursuit of ``Comprehensive National Power''
4(2)
Sovereignty Concerns
6(2)
Regime Maintenance
8(2)
Dissatisfaction with the Current International System
10(2)
Other Factors that Could Affect Chinese Behavior
12(4)
Determinants of Policy in the ``Postmodernization'' Period
16(11)
Realist Theory
17(3)
Chinese Historical Record
20(5)
Imperatives of Modernization
25(2)
What Political-Military Challenges Might China Pose?
27(9)
Vindicating Claims to Territory or Territorial Waters
27(4)
To Deal with a Separatist Threat
31(1)
To Prevent the Emergence of a New Threat to China
32(2)
To Protect Ethnic Chinese Populations or Business Interests
34(1)
To Secure Deference from Regional States
35(1)
Conclusion
36(1)
China's Military Modernization
37(26)
The PLA Today: ``Short Arms and Slow Feet''
39(9)
Chinese Military---Strategic Strengths
39(6)
Chinese Military---Strategic Weaknesses
45(2)
Summing Up: The Chinese Military Challenge Today
47(1)
Chinese Military Modernization
48(15)
Two Avenues to Improved Capabilities
48(2)
Chinese Military Modernization: Buying Abroad
50(3)
Chinese Military Modernization: Building at Home
53(4)
Other Programs
57(2)
Summing Up: The Chinese Military in 2015
59(4)
U.S. Policy Options
63(26)
Current U.S. Policy Toward China: Inconsistent ``Engagement''
63(6)
Engagement as a Policy
63(1)
Rationale of the Engagement Policy
64(2)
The Taiwan Issue in the Context of Engagement
66(1)
Limitations of Engagement as a Policy
66(1)
Criticisms of Engagement Policy
67(2)
Containment as an Alternative Policy
69(3)
Substance of a Containment Policy
69(1)
The Assumptions on Which Containment Would Be Based: Realist Theory
70(1)
Difficulties and Disadvantages of Containment
71(1)
A ``Third Way''
72(3)
Combining Containment with Engagement (``Congagement'')
72(1)
Elements of Such a Policy
72(3)
Assumptions Behind Such a Policy
75(1)
Implications for the U.S. Armed Forces and the USAF in Particular
75(9)
USAF Role in Shaping the Political-Military Environment
76(1)
Warfighting Implications
77(7)
Deterrence Implications
84(1)
Need to Threaten High Levels of Violence
84(1)
Characteristics of the Chinese Use of Force
85(1)
Conclusion
85(4)
Bibliography 89

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